By Marlee Jackson

The numbers don’t lie.

Row crop farmers are teetering on the edge of financial crisis due to a devastating one-two punch of high input costs and low prices. Add in drought that’s hammered hopes for higher yields in Alabama, and the equation foretells a grimmer result.

“The problem is our commodity prices are just too low,” said Lance Whitehead, 51, who grows corn, cotton, peanuts and soybeans in Fayette and Pickens counties. “Even if we weren’t in a drought, we still couldn’t make enough yield to offset prices.”

2024 Estimated Per Acre Row Crop Loss in Alabama*

Using U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data, experts estimate Alabama row crop farmers could lose more than $236 million this year. Nationally, row crop losses could total $32 billion. That’s calculated using USDA’s per-acre cost of production, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) commodity prices as of Aug. 12, and historic 10-year average yields.

Take cotton, Alabama’s largest crop.

This year, USDA said producing one acre of cotton will cost $902.14. With the August WASDE pinning the fiber at just 66 cents per pound and the 10-year average yield hitting 861.8 pounds per acre, farmers would bring in $568.79 per acre. That’s a $333.35 loss.

Multiplied across 394,685 acres, Alabama’s loss on cotton would reach $131.57 million. 

Under that same calculation, each acre of peanuts could lose $156.93; corn $149.54; wheat $142.56; and soybeans $82.62.

Adam Temple farms in Houston County, where his corn, soybeans and peanuts are struggling from late-season drought. Despite investing in tools like irrigation and grain storage to theoretically boost his bottom line, outside factors are taking a toll.

“No matter how hard I try to control costs, I can’t keep it under cost of production,” said Temple, 39. “Farming is very cyclical. There’s going to be good years; there’s going to be bad years. The downturn is always coming.”

Mike Neal gets it. He’s farmed four decades in Jackson County and said his current reality growing corn and soybeans is oddly reminiscent of the ‘80s. Inflation, high interest rates and low prices were hallmarks of that difficult era, he said.

He and fellow farmers face steep debt carryover into 2025. Prep for the next crop, including tough conversations with lenders for critical operating loans, began in early fall.

“Something will have to change with prices, or people won’t be able to farm,” said Neal, 66. “My plan is to keep farming, but if prices stay down much longer, I may retire and just run my trucks.”

The number of U.S. farms already dropped by more than 140,000 between 2017 and 2022, per the Census of Agriculture. More than 3,000 were lost in Alabama.

The current economy will likely shutter more farms, said Alabama Farmers Federation National Affairs Director Mitt Walker.

The future dimmed in September, when USDA predicted farmers will have lost nearly a quarter of their income since 2022. This year’s estimate predicts farm income will be $140 billion compared to $185.5 billion two years ago, when adjusted for inflation.

Farmers are painting that bleak picture when talking with decision-makers who hold the keys to potential farm-saving, short-term federal relief. Walker said farm country’s financial crisis is a direct result of poor energy, trade and economic policies.

“Farmers are struggling, but it is not of their own making,” Walker said. “This is a serious time in American agriculture, and the decisions our leaders make today will impact our farmers and country for years to come.”

Part of farmers’ woes point back to diminished international demand for agricultural goods, Walker said. USDA anticipates a record trade deficit of $42.5 billion next year. If realized, this will be the third straight record deficit. 

The departure of American agricultural dominance is concerning, Whitehead said. While a marketing shift and improved trade policies could help his farm in the future, today’s to-do list includes tightening the farm’s proverbial belt and holding out hope for tomorrow.

“The only thing I know to do is hang on, be really conservative, not create more debt and be as efficient as we can,” he said. “The good Lord got us here, and he’ll take care of us.”